European Foundry Industry Sentiment

Septem­ber 2026: 

European foundry industry sen­ti­ment weak­ens in Septem­ber 2026 des­pite improv­ing man­u­fac­tur­ing conditions

The European foundry industry exper­i­enced renewed pres­sure on busi­ness sen­ti­ment in Septem­ber 2026. The latest European Foundry Industry Sen­ti­ment Indic­ator (FISI), com­piled by European Foundry Fed­er­a­tion (EFF), reveals a deteri­or­a­tion in con­fid­ence across sev­eral import­ant seg­ments of the industry, des­pite signs of improve­ment in the broader man­u­fac­tur­ing envir­on­ment. It decreased by 1.8 index point and reached a value of 95.2 in Septem­ber 2026. 

The European Foundry Industry Sen­ti­ment Indic­ator (FISI) is a monthly indic­ator pub­lished by European Foundry Fed­er­a­tion (EFF), provid­ing an early assess­ment of busi­ness con­di­tions and mar­ket expect­a­tions in the European foundry industry. Based on inform­a­tion col­lec­ted through national foundry asso­ci­ations, FISI reflects both the cur­rent busi­ness situ­ation and expect­a­tions for the next six months. The indic­ator provides valu­able insight into devel­op­ments in the iron, steel and non-fer­rous cast­ing sec­tors and helps identify emer­ging trends in European indus­trial activity.

The Septem­ber res­ults under­line the con­tinu­ing diver­gence between indi­vidual foundry seg­ments. While steel foundries recor­ded a mod­est improve­ment in their assess­ment of cur­rent busi­ness con­di­tions, iron foundries repor­ted a deteri­or­a­tion in both their present situ­ation and future expect­a­tions. Non-fer­rous foundries also exper­i­enced a decline in sen­ti­ment, although their indic­at­ors remain con­sid­er­ably stronger than those of the fer­rous cast­ing sectors.

Iron foundries: declin­ing busi­ness con­di­tions and weak­en­ing expectations

European iron foundries exper­i­enced a deteri­or­a­tion in busi­ness sen­ti­ment in Septem­ber 2026, revers­ing the more pos­it­ive devel­op­ments in expect­a­tions recor­ded dur­ing August. The assess­ment of the cur­rent busi­ness situ­ation decreased by 1.4 points to 98.1 index points, com­pared with 99.5 in August. At the same time, expect­a­tions for the next six months declined by 2.6 points to 85.4, down from 88.0 in the pre­vi­ous month. The sim­ul­tan­eous decline in both indic­at­ors high­lights the con­tinu­ing dif­fi­culties facing European iron foundries. Although the cur­rent-situ­ation index remains rel­at­ively close to the bench­mark level of 100, expect­a­tions are sub­stan­tially weaker, indic­at­ing lim­ited con­fid­ence in a sig­ni­fic­ant improve­ment in mar­ket con­di­tions over the com­ing months.Iron foundries remain par­tic­u­larly exposed to devel­op­ments in key cus­tomer indus­tries, includ­ing auto­mot­ive man­u­fac­tur­ing, mech­an­ical engin­eer­ing, com­mer­cial vehicles, agri­cul­tural machinery and indus­trial equip­ment. Weak invest­ment activ­ity and uncer­tain order intake in these sec­tors con­tinue to influ­ence the out­look. The Septem­ber res­ults sug­gest that the recov­ery anti­cip­ated earlier in the year remains fra­gile. Stronger indus­trial demand and improved order books will be neces­sary before a sus­tained improve­ment in pro­duc­tion activ­ity can be expected.

Steel foundries: cur­rent situ­ation improves, but expect­a­tions deteriorate

European steel foundries recor­ded a mod­est improve­ment in cur­rent busi­ness con­di­tions in Septem­ber, although the over­all situ­ation remains par­tic­u­larly chal­len­ging. The assess­ment of the cur­rent busi­ness situ­ation increased by 1.9 points to 76.4 index points, com­pared with 74.5 in August. How­ever, expect­a­tions for the next six months decreased by 2.1 points to 96.1, down from 98.2 in the pre­vi­ous month. The improve­ment in the cur­rent-situ­ation indic­ator is encour­aging, par­tic­u­larly given the pro­longed weak­ness exper­i­enced by the steel cast­ing sec­tor. Nev­er­the­less, the index remains at a his­tor­ic­ally low level, reflect­ing the con­tinu­ing dif­fi­culties faced by many European steel foundries. The con­sid­er­able gap between cur­rent con­di­tions and expect­a­tions indic­ates that com­pan­ies still anti­cip­ate some improve­ment over the medium term. How­ever, the decline in the expect­a­tions indic­ator sug­gests that con­fid­ence in the pace and strength of such a recov­ery has weakened. Steel foundries are closely linked to invest­ment-intens­ive indus­tries, includ­ing energy, heavy engin­eer­ing, infra­struc­ture, rail trans­port, min­ing and defence. Devel­op­ments in these sec­tors, par­tic­u­larly the imple­ment­a­tion of major indus­trial and infra­struc­ture invest­ment pro­jects, will be cru­cial for future demand. Des­pite the mod­est improve­ment recor­ded in Septem­ber, the sec­tor remains under pres­sure, and a sus­tained recov­ery will require stronger orders, higher capa­city util­isa­tion and greater invest­ment activ­ity across European industry.

Non-fer­rous foundries: sen­ti­ment softens but remains com­par­at­ively strong

The European non-fer­rous foundry sec­tor con­tin­ued to demon­strate con­sid­er­ably stronger busi­ness con­di­tions than the iron and steel cast­ing sec­tors, although both cur­rent sen­ti­ment and expect­a­tions weakened in Septem­ber. The assess­ment of the cur­rent busi­ness situ­ation decreased by 2.0 points to 131.6 index points, com­pared with 133.6 in August. Expect­a­tions for the next six months also declined, fall­ing by 1.8 points to 149.1, com­pared with 150.9 in the pre­vi­ous month. Des­pite these decreases, both indic­at­ors remain at rel­at­ively high levels, con­firm­ing the com­par­at­ively favour­able pos­i­tion of non-fer­rous foundries within the European cast­ing industry. The sec­tor’s stronger out­look may be sup­por­ted by oppor­tun­it­ies asso­ci­ated with light­weight con­struc­tion, elec­tri­fic­a­tion, energy tech­no­lo­gies and advanced indus­trial applic­a­tions, par­tic­u­larly those requir­ing alu­minium and other non-fer­rous cast components.Nevertheless, the sim­ul­tan­eous decline in cur­rent con­di­tions and expect­a­tions indic­ates that non-fer­rous foundries are not entirely insu­lated from the broader chal­lenges affect­ing European man­u­fac­tur­ing. The Septem­ber res­ults there­fore sug­gest a mod­er­a­tion in con­fid­ence rather than a fun­da­mental deteri­or­a­tion in the sec­tor’s over­all pos­i­tion. Non-fer­rous foundries remain the most optim­istic of the three major cast­ing seg­ments, with expect­a­tions con­tinu­ing to exceed the assess­ment of cur­rent busi­ness conditions.

European man­u­fac­tur­ing strengthens: PMI reaches 52.9, while BCI con­tin­ues to recover

The broader European man­u­fac­tur­ing envir­on­ment presen­ted a more encour­aging pic­ture in Septem­ber 2026, con­trast­ing with the weak­en­ing sen­ti­ment recor­ded across much of the foundry industry. The HCOB Euro­zone Man­u­fac­tur­ing Pur­chas­ing Man­agers’ Index (PMI), com­piled by S&P Global, increased to 52.9 in Septem­ber, com­pared with 52.7 in August. This rep­res­ents the highest read­ing since May 2022 and con­firms that euro-area man­u­fac­tur­ing activ­ity con­tin­ued to expand, with the index remain­ing above the 50-point threshold sep­ar­at­ing expan­sion from con­trac­tion. The improve­ment was sup­por­ted by stronger man­u­fac­tur­ing out­put and new orders. All eight euro-area coun­tries covered by the sur­vey recor­ded expan­sion, while man­u­fac­tur­ing pro­duc­tion and new busi­ness con­tin­ued to strengthen. These devel­op­ments provide encour­aging sig­nals for indus­trial sup­pli­ers, includ­ing European foundries, although the bene­fits have yet to be reflec­ted con­sist­ently across all cast­ing segments.

The Busi­ness Cli­mate Indic­ator (BCI) for the euro area also showed an improve­ment in Septem­ber. The EFF chart indic­ates that the BCI moved closer to zero, con­tinu­ing its recov­ery from the neg­at­ive levels recor­ded dur­ing 2024 and 2025. The BCI meas­ures busi­ness con­di­tions in euro-area man­u­fac­tur­ing, tak­ing into account pro­duc­tion trends, order books, export orders, invent­or­ies and pro­duc­tion expect­a­tions. Its improve­ment sug­gests a more favour­able gen­eral indus­trial envir­on­ment, even as foundries con­tinue to face sec­tor-spe­cific challenges.

The com­par­ison between FISI and BCI high­lights an import­ant devel­op­ment: the recov­ery in European man­u­fac­tur­ing is not yet trans­lat­ing into a cor­res­pond­ing improve­ment in foundry industry con­fid­ence. While the broader indus­trial indic­at­ors are strength­en­ing, the Septem­ber FISI res­ults point to renewed cau­tion among European foundries, par­tic­u­larly regard­ing their expect­a­tions for the next six months.

Out­look: improv­ing indus­trial activ­ity has yet to trans­late into a broad-based foundry recovery

The Septem­ber 2026 res­ults high­light the increas­ingly uneven nature of the European indus­trial recov­ery. Iron foundries con­tinue to face sub­dued busi­ness con­di­tions, with both cur­rent assess­ments and six-month expect­a­tions declin­ing. Steel foundries have recor­ded a mod­est improve­ment in their cur­rent situ­ation, but their expect­a­tions have weakened, sug­gest­ing con­tin­ued uncer­tainty about the sus­tain­ab­il­ity of any recov­ery. Non-fer­rous foundries remain com­par­at­ively strong, although the Septem­ber decline in both indic­at­ors sug­gests that con­fid­ence is becom­ing more cau­tious even in this seg­ment. At the same time, the Euro­zone Man­u­fac­tur­ing PMI of 52.9 and the improv­ing BCI demon­strate that the broader man­u­fac­tur­ing envir­on­ment is show­ing signs of strength­en­ing. For the European foundry industry, the cent­ral chal­lenge will be trans­lat­ing this indus­trial recov­ery into stronger demand for cast com­pon­ents, higher capa­city util­isa­tion and more sus­tain­able order books.

The industry con­tin­ues to face struc­tural chal­lenges, includ­ing high energy and pro­duc­tion costs, inter­na­tional com­pet­i­tion, geo­pol­it­ical uncer­tainty and the need for sub­stan­tial invest­ment in tech­no­lo­gical mod­ern­isa­tion and decar­bon­isa­tion. Ensur­ing com­pet­it­ive frame­work con­di­tions for European foundries remains essen­tial to main­tain­ing resi­li­ent indus­trial sup­ply chains. The com­ing months will be cru­cial in determ­in­ing whether improv­ing man­u­fac­tur­ing activ­ity can sup­port a sus­tained recov­ery in the European foundry industry. Although broader eco­nomic indic­at­ors provide reas­ons for cau­tious optim­ism, the Septem­ber FISI res­ults demon­strate that sig­ni­fic­ant chal­lenges remain, par­tic­u­larly for iron and steel foundries.

Table – FISI and BCI in 2026:

The FISI – European Foundry Industry Sen­ti­ment Indic­ator – is the earli­est avail­able com­pos­ite indic­ator provid­ing inform­a­tion on the European foundry industry per­form­ance. It is pub­lished by EFF —  European Foundry Fed­er­a­tion every month and is based on sur­vey responses of the European foundry industry. The EFF mem­bers are asked to give their assess­ment of the cur­rent busi­ness situ­ation in the foundry sec­tor and their expect­a­tions for the next six months.

The BCI – Busi­ness Cli­mate Indic­ator – is an indic­ator pub­lished by the European Com­mis­sion. The BCI eval­u­ates devel­op­ment con­di­tions of the man­u­fac­tur­ing sec­tor in the euro area every month and uses five bal­ances of opin­ion from industry sur­vey: pro­duc­tion trends, order books, export order books, stocks and pro­duc­tion expectations.

Pur­chas­ing Man­agers’ Index (PMI) -  in the Euro area is an indic­ator of the eco­nomic health of the man­u­fac­tur­ing sec­tor. It is based on such indic­at­ors as: new orders, invent­ory levels, pro­duc­tion, sup­plier deliv­er­ies and the employ­ment environment.

EFF Con­tact:

Wit­old Dobosz
Gen­eral Sec­ret­ariat
mail: info@eff-eu.org